Surprise October

McCain needs to pull a trick out of the bag to win the election which is to be held in just less than five weeks.  He is trailing in the polls again, after the resurgence of support and interest surrounding the selection of his running mate Sarah Palin and various other beneficial tactical moves fade.  The Iowa Electronic Markets see the Republican’s chance of winning being approximately one third.

The crisis in the economy has not catapulted Obama into the lead, but it has insulated the Democratic candidate from the scrutiny that he might have received.  It is now well and truly his election to lose.  McCain is just the kind of opponent to fear in such an environment.  He is unpredictable and a self-conscious maverick.  McCain loves a fight and knows that Obama pretends not to fight.  As a result expect to see an escalation of attacks, scare tactics and even the kitchen sink thrown in Obama’s way. Notwithstanding, this activity Obama must maintain his political stall in the way he set it out at the beginning of his campaign, for he must know that any misstep or re-alignment might jeopardize a tantalizingly close prize of the White House.  In any ordinary election this would now be a closed Obama affair, but this election is proving to be slightly out of the ordinary and there is one thing that we know from experience that McCain will not do: Give up hope.